A famous line in literature features a soothsayer telling Julius Caesar to “beware the Ides of March.” I like to think that this wise sage was talking about March Madness.
Friends and strangers compete for prizes, money or bragging rights by attempting to predict not only the next NCAA Division I men’s basketball champion, but also the winners of all 64 games.
I have enjoyed success in recent years and feel obligated to pass along tips on how to pick a respectable bracket.
Forget the past. Florida and Ohio State played in the finals in 2007 but were absent from the bracket altogether in 2008.
Do your research. Which team has the higher shooting percentage? Who lost momentum by losing their conference tournament final? Know the answers to these questions.
Don’t get attached to seeds. Although no No. 16 has beat a No. 1, they have come close. A No. 15 has beaten a No. 2 four times. At least one No. 13 has beaten a No. 4 in four of the past five tournaments, including two in 2008.
Listen to the experts. There are people who see these upsets coming. Analysts like Jay Bilas and Joe Lunardi are widely recognized for predicting who could be the next “Cinderella.” Sienna and Davidson in 2008 and Bradley, George Mason and Northwestern State in 2006 were all winners on my bracket because I paid attention when someone said, “Watch out for this team. They can make or break someone’s bracket.”
Finally, pick with your head, not with your heart. Don’t put Texas in the Final Four just because you bleed burnt orange.
While I can’t guarantee victory in your pools, I can promise you that if you take my advice, you will feel more confident as you fill out those brackets, and you will no longer have to beware the Ides of March.
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